Category: The Energy OverView

WTI oil prices are back on the decline, due to the increasing prospects of a US debt default and continuing budget standoff. Prices appeared to be on this trajectory last week, as well, until news of the in-service of the southern leg of the Keystone pipeline hit the tape.… Read more

WTI oil prices were upended, yesterday, on news that the 700k bpd Keystone pipeline Cushing Oklahoma to the Gulf was basically finished and should start up by November. The news punctuated the weekly inventory, which showed a sizeable rise in overall US inventories, but a further small decline in Cushing inventories.… Read more

Our analysis of the government shutdown is set forth above in the Macro section. WTI oil prices rebounded, after finding support $101 per barrel, yesterday. Some of the bounce was attributable to perceived progress on avoiding a shutdown, but the aftermath is not so bad, right now.… Read more

Late Friday, word came down that President Obama and Iran’s President Rouhani spoke via telephone, as Rouhani was headed to the airport to return to Iran, after his week at the UNGA. The pair commiserated over New York’s difficult traffic, and they acknowledged the difficulties of the relationship between the two countries.… Read more

WTI oil prices are holding just above key support at $102 per barrel. It has taken several runs at the key to no avail. The scrutiny over Iranian President Rouhani’s visit to the UNGA is continuing. Mostly, it is being viewed with skepticism and as a charm offensive – a kinder, gentler version of his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.… Read more

The new Iranian president apparently failed to consider that President Obama might actually accept his overture to meet on the sidelines of the UN general Assembly and even shake hands. We imagine that President Rouhani was advised that Obama was willing to meet, and, after gulping, said, “Let’s get the heck out of here.”… Read more

Over the past several months, we referred to the litany of oil supply threats, both real and imagined, that combined to push prices higher, as the global market got somewhat tight. Now, almost the mirror image is playing out. First of all, Saudi Arabia, as is their wont, responded to the market conditions and have pushed up output to over 10 million bpd, and they have reiterated a capacity of 12.5 million bpd.… Read more

Oil prices are unchanged this morning, after falling on Friday, as the October WTI futures contract expired. And it expired in very weak fashion; sinking below the November futures contract in price, end a long period of backwardation. The decline in crude oil inventories at the Cushing, OK delivery point was thought to be sufficient to cause a squeeze or even a delivery failure against the expiring positions, but that did not happen.… Read more

Oil prices fell, yesterday, as the euphoria from the Fed’s commitment to maintain the pace of asset purchases faded. Prices also came under pressure from the increased focus on Iran and the apparent outreach that has occurred between Iran and the US.… Read more

Oil prices caught the buying wave across all asset classes that was provided by the Fed’s decision not to reduce bond purchases, yesterday. While we had concluded that no tapering would be announced, we underestimated the market reaction to our correct call.… Read more