Category: The Energy OverView

Oil prices are lower this morning, as the outlook for US economic growth seems to deteriorate by the day, ahead of tomorrow’s initial statement of Q2 GDP. Consensus is for a growth rate of only 1%, and a miss has obvious implications.… Read more

Oil prices are starting the week relatively flat, as the push-pull of demand concerns and geopolitical tensions battle each other. The situation in Egypt has turned more violent and it has gotten the world’s attention. Increasingly, speculation over the country’s stability and the possibility of the Suez canal being compromised are being ruminated about.… Read more

Oil prices reclaimed their losses, yesterday, but are reclaiming their gains this morning. While the inventory report this week was mostly supportive, the fact that the crude oil inventory plunge normalized undermined the strength of the rally. Also, gasoline is under pressure from a plunge in the value of renewable fuel credits or RINs that are generated when ethanol meets RBOB and heads to the corner gas station.… Read more

Crude oil prices are lower, again, this morning, after falling, yesterday, despite a supportive inventory report. Crude oil inventories were down, again, in the report, but so were refined product inventories. Exports of refined products are limiting supply gains in those categories, and the exports are skewing the demand readings, as well, inflating them to a degree.… Read more

The rally in crude oil has stalled for now. There were fears that a squeeze was developing around the expiring August WTI futures contract, but it did not materialize. In fact, the contract weakened materially, in relation to the term-structure and flipped into a discount to September from the strong premium that had developed.… Read more

WTI’s return to relevance is nearly complete, or that is what some would have you believe. It really never lost its relevance; it was merely discounted to other price markers because of the glut of oil at the delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma.… Read more

The EIA reported a much larger drawdown in crude oil inventories that the previous night’s API report, and that helped further the rally in WTI prices. Inventories of crude oil were drawn down by refiners operating at a high level. They are cranking out refined product, and that was evidenced by the large builds in gasoline and distillate stockpiles.… Read more

Oil prices are having difficulty making further gains or are well-supported, depending on your perspective and/or portfolio. Since nearing $108, prices have churned between 104 and 106. Support has come from more refinery snags, and selling pressure has come from profit-taking and soft economic data out of China, save for the implied crude oil demand figures.… Read more

For all the focus, recently, on surging shale oil production in the US and record inventories from the Cushing bottleneck, the surge in demand was somehow overlooked. US refining activity, in particular, has surged to 92% of capacity, the highest in quite some time.… Read more

The reportage is ablaze with stories of soaring crude oil and gasoline prices. The gasoline price jump is startling. Yesterday morning, driving down a major highway in New Jersey, there was retail pump price differences of upwards of 30-40 cents! Obviously, the higher priced stations had gotten a delivery that morning, while other stations were still selling lower-priced leftovers from earlier in the week.… Read more