Category: Oil Markets

Crude oil prices have surrendered most of the week’s gains as a counter trend move in the euro appears to have concluded to the dollar’s benefit. The US greenback was also helped by declining initial jobless claims. Failure of European diplomats to reach an agreement on the details of a possible embargo of Iranian oil has also must allowed for some long liquidation…

So far today, crude oil prices have held a fairly tight range. A precarious equilibrium, balancing between demand expectations and potential supply disruptions, appears to have been temporarily struck; as IEA lowered its global demand forecast and drum-beating for a causus belli over Iran’s nuclear intentions continues apace.… Read more

Headlines are driving the euro higher, as the IMF seeks to add substantial resources to aid in the debt crisis. Help from China and Brazil appears imminent, as well. Iran will just not go away, even as most acknowledge that an Iranian engineered supply disruption will carry far greater cost for them than the may want to endure.… Read more

Participants have apparently concluded that it is safe to begin acquiring length again. The logic seems to be the result of analysis that Chinese GDP growth of 8.9% in Q4 has left the export-driven, Sino-juggernaut untouched by Europe’s maladies. Additionally, this lower than expected result also indicates that Chinese monetary policy has been effective in keeping inflation in check…

Bearish inventory reports by both API and EIA had little effect on prices, allowing only a 100.88 low yesterday. Even as prices test the upper end of what has become a familiar range, it should be remembered that crude stocks now show a 1.5 MM bbl surplus to last year.… Read more

Bearish inventory reports by both API and EIA had little effect on prices, allowing only a 100.88 low yesterday. Even as prices test the upper end of what has become a familiar range, it should be remembered that crude stocks now show a 1.5 MM bbl surplus to last year.… Read more

Stock futures are marginally lower this morning. News that Germany’s economy contracted slightly in the fourth quarter is proving to be a reality check in the face of the New Year’s exuberance. Germany is dominating the news flow this morning. Chancellor Merkel is on the wire saying that Germany will seek help from the ECB to leverage the ESFS rescue facility.… Read more

Iran’s bellicose verbiage has succeeded in pushing up oil prices, without closing the Strait of Hormuz, or even firing a shot in anger. Also, the prospect of more monetary easing in China is fueling the idea that demand may be stoked in this export driven economy.… Read more

The equilibrium of the oil market will now balance on participants’ perception of Iranian intentions versus the coming European recession and its effect on aggregate demand. While the later is certainly going to have a deleterious effect on structural price construction, the former will temporarily trump all macroeconomic analysis, and is primarily the reason prices are holding over $100.… Read more