Author: johnkilduff

The equilibrium of the oil market will now balance on participants’ perception of Iranian intentions versus the coming European recession and its effect on aggregate demand. While the later is certainly going to have a deleterious effect on structural price construction, the former will temporarily trump all macroeconomic analysis, and is primarily the reason prices are holding over $100.… Read more

Iran dominated yesterday’s session yesterday with increasing bluster about closing the Strait of Hormuz, and warning the US not to send another aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf. As we have been saying, we see little for them to gain by taking this all the way to a martial conflict with the US and its allies.… Read more

The market came very close yesterday to breaking above the recent high of 103.37, as hopeful economic data and concern about Iran’s intentions led shorts to prudently cover. Certainly understandable. Participants have seen this before and no one wants to get run over by a move propelled by emotion.… Read more

Crude oil moved to the highest levels in a week as an apparent assurance by Iran that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz was not imminent was offset by their test launch of a missile in the area. Participants clearly do not want to wager that an Iranian epiphany is underway.… Read more

At the beginning of 2011, the US economy was beginning to show some signs of revival. But the staggering effects of the economic duress consequent to the previous two year’s turbulence in the housing market, only allowed for output growth in 2010 of 2.8%.… Read more

A move below 100.00, suggests that, for the moment anyway, market participants are taking Iran’s aggressive verbiage is so much bluster. Still, 100.00 continues to be pressed. No wonder that economists are predicting a 2012 average of 100.00-120.00 for WTI. The fulcrum of the oil price debate is divided between political and economics.… Read more

Right now it is all about Iran. The European conundrum has been crowded off the headlines as column inches become more and more…

Crude oil prices are holding near unchanged through lightly attended Asian and European sessions.

February’s first day as front month continued the upside momentum through yesterday’s NYMEX session…