Author: johnkilduff

The referee has to stop this fight. The potential for Greek GDP growth is being beaten to a pulp. The Troika, ( EU/IMF/ECB), required Greece to tighten austerity measures even more in order to tap into the new bailout fund. Its creditors reaction to a Greek commitment to eliminate 15,000 government jobs in 2012 has been unenthusiastic, but prompted Greeks into the street.… Read more

Europe’s conundrum will just not go away. Nor is an 8.3% unemployment rate, four years on from a recession any reason to celebrate either. The “Blinding Glimpse of the Obvious” award goes to the IMF which stated that China’s annual economic growth could be cut nearly in half this year if Europe’s debt crisis tips the world economy into a recession.… Read more

Growing stockpiles and numbers of initial filers for unemployment benefits every week is not producing a lot of confidence for offsetting demand. The non-farm payrolls report, later this morning, will have to be considerably beyond expectations to reverse the market’s growing downward momentum.… Read more

Generous additions to stocks, recorded by both API and EIA added to the souring sentiment already extant after disappointing European debt machinations. Even a strong euro, and bright PMI readings were not enough of an offset. Iran has moved back into the shadows for the moment with postponement of a European embargo until mid-summer.… Read more

Chancellor Merkel again wins the quote of the day award, commenting that “Considering the time frame, this was a real masterpiece.” Say what?! The 16th summit over two years accomplished exactly nothing in resolving the European malady. The bond vigilantes may not hold policymakers’ work in such high regard.… Read more

The sentiment pendulum for oil prices has apparently swung back towards renewed optimism concerning Europe’s travails. The single-currency has moved back towards 1.3200 to the expense of the dollar, making oil somewhat more attractive. This solace must be forming against the backdrop of the sixteenth summit producing resolution.… Read more

Last week’s optimism over the Fed’s decision to continue back door QE, the possibility of a resolution on Greece and perception that a potential embargo of Iranian oil would have little short term impact on oil prices appears to have cooled coming into the new week.… Read more

Crude oil prices are holding to the upper reaches of the week’s price action, a consequence of a surprisingly strong euro exerting downward pressure on the dollar and the Iran situation adding geopolitical risk to the equation. However, a tightening of the Brent/WTI spread is probably indicative of an assessment supply disruption associated with an embargo of Iranian crude is likely to be little more than a logistics exercise.… Read more

More positive economic news this morning has the markets on the rise, following gains from yesterday’s pronouncements from the FOMC regarding its commitment to low interest rates for the foreseeable future. The Fed also seemed to hint at a possible QE3 regime.… Read more

Crude oil prices continue to leak keep as skepticism over European resolve rises, and Iran’s recent belligerence looks more and more like empty bluster, as well. API reported last night on swelling crude oil stocks, raising concern over the sustainability of demand in the US.… Read more