Author: johnkilduff

Oil prices are unchanged this morning, after falling on Friday, as the October WTI futures contract expired. And it expired in very weak fashion; sinking below the November futures contract in price, end a long period of backwardation. The decline in crude oil inventories at the Cushing, OK delivery point was thought to be sufficient to cause a squeeze or even a delivery failure against the expiring positions, but that did not happen.… Read more

Oil prices fell, yesterday, as the euphoria from the Fed’s commitment to maintain the pace of asset purchases faded. Prices also came under pressure from the increased focus on Iran and the apparent outreach that has occurred between Iran and the US.… Read more

Oil prices caught the buying wave across all asset classes that was provided by the Fed’s decision not to reduce bond purchases, yesterday. While we had concluded that no tapering would be announced, we underestimated the market reaction to our correct call.… Read more

The petroleum complex posted losses across-the-board, yesterday. RBOB gasoline and heating oil fell hard, and WTI and Brent crude broke through key, psychological support levels. The combination of the Syria deal and the resumption of Libyan oil production weighed on prices.… Read more

Crude oil prices continue to fall, as the two-pronged issue of real and imagined supply threats recede. The imagined is Syria, and that situation is in full diplomatic attenuation for now. The UN did declare with finality that Sarin gas was used, but the US and Russia are still battling over who did it.… Read more

You can say goodbye to the Syria risk premium, at least the part attributable to a US military strike anyway. The fighting will rage on, but the spillover concerns should remain contained. The Yom Kippur observance passed without incident over the weekend, and whatever is going on in Egypt, it is not making the news.… Read more

Oil prices are higher this morning, but are covering the same tired ground of the past several weeks. This morning, the oil market was greeted by an op-ed by Russian President Putin, which highlighted his calculating ways. He speaks of growing trust between himself and President Obama, but cracks on Obama for embracing the centuries old concept of American exceptionalism.… Read more

It is the second-time around for the removal of the Syrian military strike premium from oil prices. The first spike above $112 was met by a call for congressional approval for action by President Obama, and, yesterday, it became clear that the Kerry-gaffe cum breakthrough has eliminated the possibility of a military strike in the near-term.… Read more

The recent surge in crude oil prices was driven by the imagined fears over supply disruptions due to a possible military strike on Syria, and underpinned by the reality of lost oil output from Libya and other countries. We keep referring to it as the sizzle and the steak.… Read more

WTI crude oil prices finished the week on a high note, driven upward by the concerns over Syria and the deteriorating situation in Libya. The rally on Friday seemed more to do with Syria, as good old fashioned pre-weekend, short-covering set in, just in case the rockets flew over the weekend, after all.… Read more