Author: johnkilduff

The joy of drivers around the US at the soothing sight of falling pump prices may prove short-lived. The weekly inventory report showed another decline in gasoline stores, and the refinery run rate is remaining stubbornly below 90%, at 88%. There was a rise in the overall utilization rate, which should continue, but things are getting somewhat tight.… Read more

The big news, yesterday, was that the US domestic crude oil production exceeded imports in October for the first time in nearly twenty years. Production hit 7.7 million barrels per day, and imports averaged 7.6 million bpd. In terms of historical perspective, the output would match the level seen in 1995.… Read more

A strong and clearly identifiable uptrend is building, with a series of higher lows and mostly higher highs each day, since the key reversal day from Tuesday. Prices are above the 13-day EMA at 3.593, which is support, and next overhead resistance is seen at 3.65 and 3.67.… Read more

WTI oil prices are lower this morning, after rallying modestly on Friday. The focus was front-and-center on the Iranian nuclear talks, which looked good on Friday, bad on Saturday, and better this morning. There is all kinds of conflicting reportage around the proceedings.… Read more

Oil prices continue their week-long fall, and overnight WTI prices fell below $94 and Brent fell below $103. The breaches come despite a fairly supportive weekly inventory report for WTI and smaller-than-expected North Sea loadings for November. Today, the intense focus will be on the Iran nuclear talks, which are seeing terrific progress, according to reports.… Read more

Brent crude oil rebounded, yesterday, and is holding the $106 level, while WTI continues to be weak, remaining below $105, nearing $104. The situation in Libya is the primary catalyst for the relative Brent crude strength. Even though exports are on the rise, production is said to be at 250k bpd, not 350k, as was reported late last week.… Read more

This is what a bear market looks like – bullish news gets ignored and bearish news gets embraced. China’s services PMI for October expanded to the highest level in 18 months and two refinery snags are reported on the wires, and the energy complex is lower, regardless.… Read more

Reported growth in China’s manufacturing sector, the most in __ months, lifted oil prices for a time overnight, but the gains have not held, early on. Both Brent and WTI crude fell, yesterday, as the profit-taking on the recent widening of the spread occurred.… Read more

Crude oil prices are lower this morning, as the current protagonist, Libya improves its oil output. According to a Libyan oil minister, production has rebounded to around 300k bpd, with exports around 200k bpd. Prices were supported, earlier in the week, by news of a virtual halt of Libyan output, due to the latest round of internal political strife.… Read more

Libya is generating considerable headline risk for Brent crude oil prices, especially, at the moment. Prices have surged and fallen back on various reports of output halts and restarts on Monday and Tuesday. This morning, Hess, which is now a company mostly focused on exploration and production, warned that civil unrest in Libya would keep its Libyan production at the low end of estimates going forward.… Read more