Month: August 2012

Price action continues to repeat while participants await fresh data. The counter-intuitive interpretation of data remains dominant as a harbinger of stimulus. Thus, better than expected German GDP data and a better than forecast read on US Retail Sales provided only limited support from the favorable macroeconomic tone.… Read more

Oil prices stayed within the recent consolidation near highs posted since the late June lows. Brent was the star performer based on the maintenance constrained North Sea output and rising geopolitical threats, as the debate in Israel intensifies about striking Iran’s disputed nuclear program.… Read more

The old saw about “Greeks bearing gifts” may rebound to the bulls disadvantage. A report this morning of “only” a 6.2% GDP contraction, can hardly be interpreted as a harbinger of better time for the long-suffering peripheral. While this may provide temporary relief in the form of more aid from their creditors, it can only add weight to the argument that austerity is working leading to further cut in salaries…

Front month NYMEX crude oil prices continue to languish just under recent highs. Disappointing Chinese, German and French data overnight have led to more length being shed. In addition, the IEA’s diminished outlook for oil demand, adding to the EIA and OPEC reports earlier in the week, is also adding to the overnight selling pressure.… Read more

Prices failed at session highs, reached on a bullish EIA report suggesting that recent upside momentum had temporarily run its course. The structure of price action was an expression of the counter-intuitive though process that participants have embraced. Bad news is good news because it implies more stimulative monetary policy, and consequently, improved demand.… Read more

September crude oil prices moved briskly above the previous high at 93.25, finally reaching 94.42 before fading almost a dollar before settling at 93.67. Early support for the market came from hopes for more stimulative monetary policy which also contributed to significant gains in global equity markets and weakness in the US dollar to a new four week low.… Read more

Despite low summer volume and a dearth of data, September WTI continues its march higher. An early buying spurt on an errant Twitter that Syria’s Assad was either dead or wounded lit a fire of concern about who was actually in charge in the strife-torn country.… Read more

Last week, the ECB’s Mario Draghi came out with a full-throated defense of and commitment to the euro, decrying the recent slide in the currency’s value by saying that the ECB would do everything necessary to preserve it. The markets took him at his word and rallied, and awaited yesterday’s ECB meeting as the logical place and time for substantive measures to be announced.… Read more

Hopes that the ECB meeting would produce a substantive monetary solution to Europe’s spreading debt crisis had reached so high, that there was discussion of a possible “road map” in the hours leading up to the post-meeting press conference. No wonder his ineffectual comments disappointed.… Read more

Prices for risk assets, including crude oil have been moving counter-intuitively for the past few sessions. Disappointing data, instead of weighing on prices were taken positively because they were interpreted as a harbinger of central bank action. But despite Mr. Draghi’s enthusiastic comments at the end of last week, and Chairman Bernanke’s implicit commitment to stimulative action, mid-session yesterday there seemed to be a sentiment shift.… Read more